For months now, we and most other market observers have been pointing to this week (November 1- November 5), aka the "First Week in November" as a watershed week for markets and the economy, and for good reason. Economics, policy, and politics will fight for room in the headlines this week, as the long awaited First Week in November finally unfolds. The economic data due out this week includes key reports on manufacturing, employment, retail sales, vehicle sales, and consumer spending, as the third quarter ended and the fourth quarter began.
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Outside the world of economics, both policy and politics will compete for attention this week. We will revisit the policy angle, in this case, monetary policy, as we reiterate our view on what the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to announce at the end of the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday. We will also discuss some of the common arguments being made against doing more quantitative easing (QE).
Of course, Tuesday is Election Day, as voters decide control of both houses of Congress, 37 governorships and multitudes of state and local races. In our view, the post election "tone" in Washington could have a large bearing on the economy, and financial markets in late 2010 and early 2011.
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